PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Democratic 65%
Democratic 65%Market quality
75 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$16
Liquidity
$543K
High liquidityBid / Ask
64.0% / 65.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
94
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jul 18, 25, 5:30 PM UTCNov 8, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the party that wins the 2024 US presidential election win the 2028 presidential election
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2028 US Presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2028 US presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWho will Trump endorse first in the 2028 US presidential election?
PolymarketWinner of the next US Presidential Election
FutuurUS Presidential Election Winner 2028
MyriadRules
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.
- This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.
- The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
- This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party.
- If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Prediction Source Comparison
4 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Democratic party is 58%. The venue spread is about 8 percentage points. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference Democratic party 58% · 4 venues · 8 pt venue spread
- Also available on ForecastEx — Will a Republican win the US Presidential Election in 2028? · No 56%
- Also available on Limitless — Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? · Democratic 65%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election? · Democrats 65%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 US Presidential Election: Winning Party · Democrat 57%
- — Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election?
