Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDemocrats 60.3%Leader of 14 outcomes
Forecasters
40
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJun 12, 25, 12:47 PM UTCNov 6, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2028 US Presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWill the party that wins the 2024 US presidential election win the 2028 presidential election
Manifold MarketsWhich party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
LimitlessWho will Trump endorse first in the 2028 US presidential election?
PolymarketWinner of the next US Presidential Election
FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the political party of the candidate who wins the 2028 United States presidential election, scheduled for November 7, 2028.
- The winning party will be determined based on the candidate who secures the majority of electoral votes as reported by reputable sources such as the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and major news outlets like The New York Times and CNN.
- The 2028 U.S. presidential election will determine the nation's leadership for the subsequent four years.
- As of June 2025, several potential candidates from both major parties are being discussed:
- Republican Party: Vice President JD Vance is considered a frontrunner, with a 25% chance of winning the 2028 presidential race, according to SportsBettingDime.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on ForecastEx — Will a Republican win the US Presidential Election in 2028? · No 56%
- Also available on Limitless — Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? · Democratic 61%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 US Presidential Election: Winning Party · Democrat 57%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Which party will win the 2028 US Presidential election? · Democratic Party 61%
- Also available on Polymarket — Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? · Democratic 61%
- Also available on PredictIt — Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election? · Democratic 58%
- Also available on Kalshi — 2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party) · Democratic party 58%
Open markets
Politics
KALSHINH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Stefany Shaheen+81.8pt100%
- Maura Sullivan-81.6pt0%
- Carleigh Beriont-2.7pt0%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $884.5K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.6M
- 24h Vol
- $655K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-3.0pt52.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.9pt45.5%
- Renan Santos1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-1.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.6pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.3M
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.2pt37.1%
- Édouard Philippe32%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.4%
+38 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- NJ-07 House winner?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election??
- Manifold Markets prices Democrats at 60% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election? resolve?
- Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election? is scheduled to resolve on November 6, 2028.
- How is Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria
- Where else is Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election? listed?
- The same question is also listed on ForecastEx, Limitless, Robinhood (Rothera), Manifold Markets, Polymarket, PredictIt, Kalshi.