Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDemocrats 63.8%Leader of 14 outcomes
Forecasters
40
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJun 12, 25, 12:47 PM UTCNov 6, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the party that wins the 2024 US presidential election win the 2028 presidential election
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2028 US Presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2028 US presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsWhich party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
LimitlessWho will Trump endorse first in the 2028 US presidential election?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the political party of the candidate who wins the 2028 United States presidential election, scheduled for November 7, 2028.
- The winning party will be determined based on the candidate who secures the majority of electoral votes as reported by reputable sources such as the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and major news outlets like The New York Times and CNN.
- The 2028 U.S. presidential election will determine the nation's leadership for the subsequent four years.
- As of June 2025, several potential candidates from both major parties are being discussed:
- Republican Party: Vice President JD Vance is considered a frontrunner, with a 25% chance of winning the 2028 presidential race, according to SportsBettingDime.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on ForecastEx — Will a Republican win the US Presidential Election in 2028? · No 56%
- Also available on Limitless — Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? · Democratic 65%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Will a Democrat win the 2028 Presidential Election? · Yes 64%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 US Presidential Election: Winning Party · Democrat 62%
- Also available on Polymarket — Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
