Which party will win the House in 2026?
1.0 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms29d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Democratic Party 92.1%-1.0pt
Democratic Party 92.1%-1.0ptMarket quality
96 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$406.8K
Liquidity
$2.4M
High liquidityBid / Ask
92.0% / 93.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
3
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jul 11, 25, 7:50 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election.
- A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats.
- If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.
- The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
- All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included.
- Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Prediction Source Comparison
4 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Democratic Party is 92%. The venue spread is about 1 percentage point. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference Democratic Party 92% · 4 venues · 1 pt venue spread
- Also available on PredictIt — Which party will win the House in the 2026 election? · Democratic 90%
- Also available on Gemini — Which party will win the U.S. House? · Democratic Party 90%
- Also available on Limitless — Which party will win the House in 2026? · Democratic Party 93%
- Also available on Kalshi — Which party will win the U.S. House? · Democratic Party 91%