Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Alabama's 4th District?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms9d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 10:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastRepublican Party — Robert Aderholt 97.1%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
1
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleOct 6, 26, 5:36 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves to the party of the winner of the 2026 election for U.S. Representative for Alabama's 4th congressional district — the term beginning January 3, 2027.
- Which round counts: the November 3, 2026 general election (plurality winner).
- Primaries do not count.
- Party rule: the winner's party is the party on whose line or with whose party designation they appear on the official general-election ballot.
- A candidate nominated by Democratic Party or Republican Party who also appears on other parties' lines (fusion) counts as that party's candidate.
- Candidates who are independent, have no party preference, or belong to any other party resolve to "the named outcome", even if they say they would caucus with a major party.
