PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 61%-1.0%Leader of 32 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$281.3K
Liquidity
$9.7M
High liquidityBid / Ask
10.9% / 11.0%
Spread
0.9%
Tight spread7d Change
+0.9%
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Sep 18, 25, 8:07 PMOct 4, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva61%
Compare venues· Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | High | 61% | +2pt | $281.3K | $9.7M | 13 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi80% match · verified | Medium | 59% | 0pt | $6.6K | $1.3M | 7 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets78% match · auto | — | 58% | -1pt | — | — | 10 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets80% match · linked | — | 57% | -2pt | — | — | 10 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Brazil Presidential election winner?
2.7%1y
+2.7%9%
-3.0%25%
+2.8%5%
+10 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$2.4M
24h Vol$6.6K
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
2026 Brazil Presidential Election Winner?
3mo
+1.7%56.9%
25%
-0.8%11.1%
+5 more outcomes
Community forecast26 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Brazil Presidential Election Winner
2mo
58%
+0.1%25%
1%
+4 more outcomes
Community forecast18 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
- This market includes any potential second round.
- If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.7k99.9%Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — Nokatherinehuff3h ago
$3.0k90.4%Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — Nonxdereyopan3d ago
$2.5k99.9%Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — Noericagraves5d ago
$2.4k22.1%Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — Yesoabdalla5d ago
$3.1k99.9%Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — Nomaldonadojeffrey8d ago
$1.9k1.4%YesBinotto9d ago
$2.6k99.9%Nolawsonamber10d ago
Volume trend
$281.3kJul 210d of dataJul 11
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A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
- This market includes any potential second round.
- If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).