KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityKen Paxton 57%-1.0%
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$27.4K
Liquidity
$4.2M
High liquidityBid / Ask
56.0% / 57.0%
Spread
1.8%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Dec 3, 24, 3:00 PMNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Ken Paxton57%
Compare venues· Ken Paxton
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | High | 57% | — | $27.4K | $4.2M | 19 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets82% match · verified | — | 58% | — | — | — | 25 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Who will win in the Texas Senate Race?
3mo
58%
42%
Community forecast22 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$6.8k57.0%KALSHIKen Paxton — Yes7d ago
KALSHIKen Paxton — Yes7d ago$1.4k56.0%KALSHIKen Paxton — Yes7d ago
KALSHIKen Paxton — Yes7d ago$1.1k58.0%KALSHIKen Paxton — Yes10d ago
KALSHIKen Paxton — Yes10d ago$1.2k43.0%KALSHIJames Talarico — Yes11d ago
KALSHIJames Talarico — Yes11d ago$1.9k59.0%KALSHIKen Paxton — Yes19d ago
KALSHIKen Paxton — Yes19d ago$1.1k42.0%KALSHIKen Paxton — No19d ago
KALSHIKen Paxton — No19d ago$1.2k41.0%KALSHIJames Talarico — Yes19d ago
KALSHIJames Talarico — Yes19d ago$1.0k41.0%KALSHIJames Talarico — Yes19d ago
KALSHIJames Talarico — Yes19d agoVolume trend
$27.4kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.