KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityByron Donalds 97%-0.6ptLeader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$224.4K
Liquidity
$6.7M
High liquidityBid / Ask
1.3% / 1.6%
Spread
0.3 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Sep 19, 25, 2:00 PMNov 3, 26, 3:00 PM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Jay Collins1%
Compare venues· Byron Donalds
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | High | 97% | 0pt | $224.4K | $6.7M | 19 minutes ago | |
 Polymarket85% match · verified | High | 98% | +1pt | $5.9K | $304.5K | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets88% match · verified | — | 95% | -2pt | — | — | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
 PredictIt90% match · verified | — | 94% | -3pt | — | — | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on PredictIt
Who will win the 2026 Florida Republican nomination for governor?
1y
94%
3%
1%
+2 more outcomes
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be the 2026 Republican nominee for Governor of Florida?
4d
+1.1pt95.4%
-1.5pt2.5%
+0.4pt1.9%
+1 more outcomes
Community forecast19 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Polymarket
Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner
0.5 pts21d
+0.5pt98%
-0.5pt2%
0%
+20 more outcomes
85 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$2.1M
24h Vol$5.9K
POLYMARKETRules
If Byron Donalds wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Jay Collins wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Wilton Simpson wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Matt Gaetz wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Jimmy Patronis wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Casey DeSantis wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.4k97.5%KALSHIByron Donalds — Yesyesterday
KALSHIByron Donalds — Yesyesterday$4.4k97.7%KALSHIJames Fishback — No3d ago
KALSHIJames Fishback — No3d ago$2.8k97.7%KALSHIJames Fishback — No3d ago
KALSHIJames Fishback — No3d ago$1.1k97.7%KALSHIJames Fishback — No3d ago
KALSHIJames Fishback — No3d ago$5.8k97.6%KALSHIJames Fishback — No3d ago
KALSHIJames Fishback — No3d ago$1.8k97.2%POLYMARKETWill James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? — NoInsiderrrZ5d ago
POLYMARKETWill James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? — NoInsiderrrZ5d ago$4.8k97.1%KALSHIJames Fishback — No12d ago
KALSHIJames Fishback — No12d ago$2.4k96.4%KALSHIJames Fishback — No15d ago
KALSHIJames Fishback — No15d agoVolume trend
$224.4kJul 226d of dataJul 27
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If Byron Donalds wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Jay Collins wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Wilton Simpson wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Matt Gaetz wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Jimmy Patronis wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Casey DeSantis wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.