PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNicolás Maduro 82%-0.5%Leader of 57 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$199.5K
Liquidity
$2M
High liquidityBid / Ask
81.5% / 81.9%
Spread
0.5%
Tight spread7d Change
+1.6%
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jan 4, 26, 6:21 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Nicolás Maduro82%
Compare venues· Nicolás Maduro
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Manifold Markets
President of Venezuela at the end of 2026
5mo
-0.9%83.3%
+0.4%6.1%
-0.5%5.9%
+4 more outcomes
Community forecast355 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Also available on Kalshi
Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
5mo
79%
+2.0%13%
+1.1%6%
+15 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$5.1M
24h Vol$5.7K
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
- If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
- In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status.
- If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
- If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.9k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — Nonichole435d ago
POLYMARKETWill Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — Nonichole435d ago$2.6k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — Nofjohnston7d ago
POLYMARKETWill Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — Nofjohnston7d ago$1.0k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — Nohklcrypt9d ago
POLYMARKETWill Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — Nohklcrypt9d ago$1.0k79.9%POLYMARKETWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — Yes0x247d…b08e10d ago
POLYMARKETWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — Yes0x247d…b08e10d ago$2.7k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — Nopetersonmelissa23d ago
POLYMARKETWill Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — Nopetersonmelissa23d ago$2.6k99.8%POLYMARKETNolawsonamber25d ago
POLYMARKETNolawsonamber25d agoVolume trend
$199.5kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
- If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
- In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status.
- If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
- If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.