Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
1.0% (24h)One-OffPoliticsLatin AmericaEntertainmentMusic5mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNicolás Maduro 78%-1.0%Leader of 18 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$5.7K
Liquidity
$1.2M
High liquidityBid / Ask
79.0% / 80.0%
Spread
1.3%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Jan 3, 26, 8:00 PMDec 31, 26, 2:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Nicolás Maduro78%
Compare venues· Nicolás Maduro
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Manifold Markets
President of Venezuela at the end of 2026
5mo
-0.9%83.3%
+0.4%6.1%
-0.5%5.9%
+4 more outcomes
Community forecast355 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Also available on Polymarket
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
0.6%5mo
-0.6%82%
+3.5%12%
-0.4%3%
+54 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$94.3M
24h Vol$91.3K
POLYMARKETRules
If Edmundo González Urrutia officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For the purposes of this contract, "officially holds" means any of the following:
- Edmundo González Urrutia has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela Edmundo González Urrutia is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela Edmundo González Urrutia is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)
- The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role:
- Nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective Appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026 Previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026 Serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity Named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed Holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself
- Clarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.9k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — Nonichole435d ago
POLYMARKETWill Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — Nonichole435d ago$2.6k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — Nofjohnston7d ago
POLYMARKETWill Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — Nofjohnston7d ago$1.0k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — Nohklcrypt9d ago
POLYMARKETWill Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — Nohklcrypt9d ago$1.0k79.9%POLYMARKETWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — Yes0x247d…b08e11d ago
POLYMARKETWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — Yes0x247d…b08e11d ago$2.7k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — Nopetersonmelissa23d ago
POLYMARKETWill Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — Nopetersonmelissa23d ago$2.6k99.8%POLYMARKETNolawsonamber25d ago
POLYMARKETNolawsonamber25d agoVolume trend
$5.7kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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If Edmundo González Urrutia officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For the purposes of this contract, "officially holds" means any of the following:
- Edmundo González Urrutia has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela Edmundo González Urrutia is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela Edmundo González Urrutia is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)
- The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role:
- Nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective Appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026 Previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026 Serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity Named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed Holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself
- Clarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.