KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Nicolás Maduro 62.9%-8.0ptLeader of 18 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$9.9K
Liquidity
$1.2M
High liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jan 3, 26, 8:00 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 2:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
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KalshiRules
If the named outcome Urrutia officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:personofficial government websiteagencyor company responsible for rolethe Federal RegisterUSAJobs.govofficial organizational website where role is housedThe New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalPoliticoAxiosCNNABCCBSFox NewsMSNBCNBC
- For the purposes of this contract, "officially holds" means any of the following:
- the named outcome Urrutia has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela the named outcome Urrutia is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela the named outcome Urrutia is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)
- The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role:
- Nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective Appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026 Previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026 Serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity Named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed Holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself
- Clarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to the named outcome and No to all other strikes.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Venezuela leader end of 2026? · Nicolás Maduro 86%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — President of Venezuela at the end of 2026 · Delcy Rodríguez 83%
- Also available on Limitless — Venezuela leader end of 2026? · Nicolás Maduro 87%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026??
- Kalshi prices Nicolás Maduro at 63% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? resolve?
- Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome Urrutia officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket, Manifold Markets, Limitless.