PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDemocrats Sweep 44%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$15K
Liquidity
$944K
High liquidityBid / Ask
14.0% / 15.0%
Spread
7.1%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jul 11, 25, 9:05 PMNov 3, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Democrats Sweep44%
Compare venues· Democrats Sweep
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall82% match · verified | High | 46% | — | $62.9K | $5.1M | 4 minutes ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis page | High | 44% | — | $15K | $944K | 11 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets82% match · linked | — | 42% | — | — | — | 1 hour ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets88% match · verified | — | 44% | — | — | — | 7 hours ago | Open → |
 PredictIt88% match · linked | — | 41% | — | — | — | 3 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on PredictIt
What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 election?
41%
38%
23%
+1 more outcomes
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITAlso available on Manifold Markets
What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?
3mo
-0.3%42.4%
+0.2%43.8%
0.8%
+2 more outcomes
Community forecast99 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Kalshi
2026 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
3.0%6mo
+3.0%46%
-1.0%37%
18%
+1 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$8M
24h Vol$62.9K
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?
3mo
-0.3%42.4%
+0.1%12.1%
0.8%
+2 more outcomes
Community forecast128 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
- A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
- A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
- A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$15.0kJul 212d of dataJul 13
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This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
- A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
- A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
- A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.