What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 election?
One-OffPoliticsElectionUS Politics
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Current implied probability
Dem. House & Senate 47%Leader of 4 outcomes
Methodology
Retail prediction exchange
Question type
-
24h Volume
$9.9K
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
Rules
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S. House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2026 general election.
- The 2026 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat.
Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2026 general election. - Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., "delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The number of Senate seats that a party holds following the 2026 midterm elections will be the sum of the following: i) the number of U.S. Senate seats won in the 2026 midterm elections by candidates with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable affiliation for that party, and ii) the number of incumbent Senate seats not subject to re-election or special election in 2026 held by members of that party's caucus. - In the event that a Senate seat is vacant but an election will not be held in the 2026 midterm elections, that seat will be considered to be held by the party associated with the seat's most recent incumbent.
Should the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2026 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. - Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
- If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? · D-House, D-Senate 46%
- Also available on Limitless — Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · Democrats Sweep 50%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms? · Democrats Sweep 49%
- Also available on Smarkets — Balance of Power After the 2026 Midterms · Democrats Senate + Democrats House 46%
- Also available on Polymarket — Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · Democrats Sweep 51%
