Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?
1.5 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
R Pres, D Senate, D House 47.3%-1.5ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
364
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-2.2 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Sep 19, 24, 12:51 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.3%
0.1%
0%
0%
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Manifold MarketsRules
Dem means "Democratic Party." GOP means "Republican Party."
- [Party] Congress means "[Party] control of House and Senate."
- This market will resolve after all three underlying questions have been resolved.
- President (Pres): resolves after the AP calls the race.
- House: resolves after the AP calls party control of the House.
- If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (GOP or Democrats), they will be included as part of party control.