Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?
0.6 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 24, 2026, 9:16 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
R Pres, D Senate, D House 68%+0.6ptLeader of 8 outcomes
R Pres, D Senate, D House 68%+0.6ptForecasters
373
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+4.9 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleSep 19, 24, 12:51 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Dem means "Democratic Party." GOP means "Republican Party."
- [Party] Congress means "[Party] control of House and Senate."
- This market will resolve after all three underlying questions have been resolved.
- President (Pres): resolves after the AP calls the race.
- House: resolves after the AP calls party control of the House.
- If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (GOP or Democrats), they will be included as part of party control.