Will pro-Russian armed groups take control of a government building in any Baltic city or town by November 30, 2026?
One-OffRussia / UkraineGeopoliticsEurope2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.9%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleAug 27, 26, 6:15 AM UTCNov 30, 26, 10:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves YES if, at any time between market creation and the end of November 30, 2026 (EET, UTC+2), an organized pro-Russian armed group establishes de facto physical control over at least one government administration building in any city or town in Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania.
- It resolves NO otherwise.
- Qualifying buildings: Buildings used by a civilian national, regional, or municipal administration, such as a city/town hall or government administrative offices.
- Private offices, military facilities, and monuments do not count on their own.
- Physical control: The group must physically occupy the building and control access to it, excluding the lawful authorities from its normal use.
- A demonstration outside, flag-raising, threats, or an unsuccessful incursion does not count.
Open markets
Russia / Ukraine
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $549.5K
POLYMARKETRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
- United Russia (ER)+0.6pt100%
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)-0.1pt0%
- A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)0%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027-1.0pt14%
- December-1.0pt7%
- September 30,-0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- UNRWA+0.5pt8%
- International Court of Justice-1.8pt6%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUnited Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
- 325–339-0.5pt37.1%
- 340–354+2.0pt24.7%
- 310–324-5.0pt22.7%
POLYMARKETBank of Russia decision in September?
- No Change-1.0pt68.7%
- Decrease+1.5pt28.3%
- Increase-1.1pt3%
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
- Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
- Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will pro-Russian armed groups take control of a government building in any Baltic city or town by November 30, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will pro-Russian armed groups take control of a government building in any Baltic city or town by November 30, 2026? resolve?
- Will pro-Russian armed groups take control of a government building in any Baltic city or town by November 30, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on November 30, 2026.
- How is Will pro-Russian armed groups take control of a government building in any Baltic city or town by November 30, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if, at any time between market creation and the end of November 30, 2026 (EET, UTC+2), an organized pro-Russian armed group establishes de facto physical control over at least one government administration building in any city or town in Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania.