Will pro-Russian armed groups take control of a government building in any Baltic city or town by November 30, 2026?
One-OffRussia / UkraineGeopoliticsEurope1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 91%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleAug 27, 26, 6:15 AM UTCNov 30, 26, 10:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the majority of Russians cease to support "the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine" in 2026?
Manifold MarketsBalance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?
Manifold MarketsWill Indiana Public Question 2 (city and town court judge residency) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?
Manifold MarketsDoes the US take control of Kharg Island (Iran) with boots on the ground even just for an hour before ... (UTC)?
Manifold MarketsUkraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
PolymarketWill the US take control of any part of Greenland?
KalshiRules
This market resolves YES if, at any time between market creation and the end of November 30, 2026 (EET, UTC+2), an organized pro-Russian armed group establishes de facto physical control over at least one government administration building in any city or town in Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania.
- It resolves NO otherwise.
- Qualifying buildings: Buildings used by a civilian national, regional, or municipal administration, such as a city/town hall or government administrative offices.
- Private offices, military facilities, and monuments do not count on their own.
- Physical control: The group must physically occupy the building and control access to it, excluding the lawful authorities from its normal use.
- A demonstration outside, flag-raising, threats, or an unsuccessful incursion does not count.