PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 60%-0.5ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.3K
Liquidity
$22.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
5
7d Change
-4.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
May 21, 26, 5:42 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
- The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
Open markets
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.2pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.4pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $731.8K
POLYMARKETRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
- United Russia (ER)+0.8pt100%
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)-0.1pt0%
- A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)0%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUnited Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
- 325–33937.1%
- 340–354+3.0pt25.8%
- 310–324-5.5pt21.6%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 202714%
- December-1.0pt7%
- September 30,-0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETBank of Russia decision in September?
- No Change+0.5pt68.6%
- Decrease+1.0pt28.4%
- Increase+0.8pt2.9%
POLYMARKETKanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- No-12.5pt67%
- Yes+12.5pt33%
- Total Vol
- $390.4K
- 24h Vol
- $49.7K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31 at 60% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by which date? resolve?
- Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.