PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 51%+1.5%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.3K
Liquidity
$11.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
24.0% / 25.0%
Spread
4.2%
Moderate spread7d Change
+9.5%
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
May 21, 26, 5:42 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3151%
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
- The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.