PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 44%+7.5ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.2K
Liquidity
$1.9K
Low liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
2
7d Change
+0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Mar 10, 26, 3:19 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
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KalshiRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Obratne (47.827331° N, 36.548744° E) or Temyrivka (47.825114° N, 36.570672° E), Zaporizhzhya Oblast, between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.