PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
October 1 99%Leader of 31 outcomes
October 1 99%Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$122.7K
Liquidity
$15.8K
Medium liquiditySpread
10.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 35 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 12:12 AM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by which date?
PolymarketRussia to take Kyiv by force in 2026?
FutuurFK Obolon Kyiv vs. FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
PolymarketFK Obolon Kyiv vs. FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih - Halftime Result
PolymarketFK Obolon Kyiv vs. FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih - Second Half Result
PolymarketRussia's Next Target
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
