PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 8, 2026, 9:07 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
December 31 · —
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Stored reference
December 31 80%Leader of 5 outcomes
December 31 80%Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$259.1K
Liquidity
$348.3K
High liquidityOpen interest
$108.6K
Bid / Ask
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December 31Spread
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Comments
5
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 8, 26, 2:48 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 8:29 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · December 31
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketIsrael x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketUS-Iran effective ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketWill Bitcoin hit $95,000 before a formal US-Iran ceasefire is signed?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which dates?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia and/or China get involved with the US/Israel and Iran situation before May begins
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran is completed, where the first day of that period is between market creation and the specified date (Iran Standard Time).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (Iran Standard Time) after the most recent qualifying military action.
- Military actions occurring before market creation are not qualifying military actions.
- Where no qualifying military action has occurred after market creation, the first day of the 14-day period will be the date of market creation (Iran Standard Time).
- The period runs through 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on the 14th calendar day.