PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Sep 8, 2026, 9:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
December 31, 6%+0.1pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$8.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
4.2% / 7.7%
Spread
3.5 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Apr 7, 26, 2:29 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
PolymarketPete Hegseth departure announced?
KalshiPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?
PolymarketWill Pete Hegseth be the Secretary of War on 12/31/2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Pete Hegseth leave office in 2026?
PredictItPete Hegseth's War Thunder account revealed before midterms?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
- If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
- The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Pete Hegseth impeached by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31, at 6% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Pete Hegseth impeached by which date? resolve?
- Pete Hegseth impeached by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Pete Hegseth impeached by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET.