Current implied probability
Ken Paxton (R) 57%-1.0%Leader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$5.5K
Liquidity
$123.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
57.0% / 58.0%
Spread
1.8%
Tight spread7d Change
-3.0%
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Oct 13, 25, 9:34 PMNov 3, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Selected outcome
Ken Paxton (R)57%
Also available on Kalshi
Texas Senate winner?
1y
59%
+1.0%43%
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$47.1K
24h Vol$489.6
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S.
- Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
- A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question.
- Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
- Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
- The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S.
- Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
- A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question.
- Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
- Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
- The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.