PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
James Talarico (D) 51.5%
Market quality
79 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$4K
Liquidity
$92.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
51.0% / 52.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
109
7d Change
+1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Oct 13, 25, 9:28 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory
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PolymarketIf this person wins the 2026 Texas Senate seat Democratic primary, will they become Senator?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
- A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question.
- Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
- Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
- The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
- This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election? · No 51%
- Also available on Smarkets — Texas Senate Election Winner · Republican 50%
- Also available on Kalshi — Texas Senate winner? · Ken Paxton 50%
- Also available on Futuur — Texas's Senate election winner · Democratic Party 52%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Texas Senate Election Winner?
- Polymarket prices James Talarico (D) at 51% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does Texas Senate Election Winner resolve?
- Texas Senate Election Winner is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Texas Senate Election Winner settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
- Where else is Texas Senate Election Winner listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets, Smarkets, Kalshi, Futuur.