US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
1.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle East2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
March 31 73%+1.0ptLeader of 23 outcomes
March 31 73%+1.0ptMarket quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$584.3K
Liquidity
$658.3K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
729
7d Change
-3.5 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 13, 26, 6:04 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
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Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime be overthrown?
Manifold MarketsRules
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees).
- An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
- A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
