Will the current wave of Iranian protests be suppressed by the end of 2026?
InflationOne-OffMiddle East1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 92.9%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJan 4, 26, 10:09 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the current wave of Iranian protests that began on December 28, 2025 is suppressed by December 31, 2026. "Suppressed" is defined as a sustained cessation of large-scale, organized demonstrations across multiple cities for a period of at least 30 consecutive days, with no significant resurgence of nationwide protest activity.
- Resolution will be determined by monitoring reports from credible international news sources including Reuters, AP News, BBC, Al Jazeera, and Iran International, as well as human rights organizations including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch.
- The market resolves NO if protests continue at significant scale or resurge during the resolution period.
- Mass demonstrations erupted across multiple cities in Iran beginning December 28, 2025, amid a deepening economic crisis and widespread dissatisfaction with the government.
- While initially sparked by frustration over skyrocketing inflation, rising food prices, and the severe depreciation of the Iranian rial, the protests quickly evolved into a broader movement demanding an end to the Islamic Republic's rule.
