KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 3.2% 98%Leader of 21 outcomes
Market quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$2.9K
Medium liquiditySpread
35.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jun 10, 26, 5:20 PM UTCDec 10, 26, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiCore inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
KalshiJapan Core CPI YoY in 2026
PolymarketJapan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
PolymarketPoland: Will CPI inflation in Poland exceed X% throughout 2026 (CPI YoY)?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.0% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.1% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.2% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.3% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.4% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt63.4%
- No change-9.0pt35.6%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $112.2M
- 24h Vol
- $6.3M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $769.4K
- 24h Vol
- $106.2K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+4.5pt70%
- September Meeting+8.0pt63%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+9.0pt79.2%
- No-9.0pt20.8%
- Total Vol
- $8.8M
- 24h Vol
- $51.4K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $449.7K
- 24h Vol
- $31.6K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 1 (25 bps)+3.0pt48.6%
- 2 (50 bps)+9.0pt30.5%
- 0 (0 bps)-10.5pt16.2%
+3 more outcomes
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- August Inflation US - Annual
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI core in August
- PPI YoY - August 2026
- PPI YoY - August 2026
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- How high will inflation get this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)?
- Kalshi prices Above 3.2% at 98% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) resolve?
- Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) is scheduled to resolve on December 10, 2026.
- How is Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.0% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.