KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 95%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$19.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
2.0% / 5.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Apr 21, 26, 4:00 PM UTCDec 10, 26, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that year-over-year Core CPI inflation is below 2.2% in any remaining 2026 monthly CPI release after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- This market covers only CPI releases scheduled to occur in calendar year 2026 and does not include the CPI release scheduled for January 2027, even though that release may report December 2026 data.
- The last covered CPI release is the November 2026 CPI release, scheduled for Thursday, December 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+3.0pt86.1%
- No-3.0pt13.9%
- Total Vol
- $70.4K
- 24h Vol
- $24.8K
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETSeptember Inflation US - Annual
- 3.6%+0.5pt40.4%
- 3.7%-1.5pt24.8%
- 3.5%+5.0pt21.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above 0.2%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $214.1K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETU.K. Annual Inflation 2026
- 3.5–3.9%-5.9pt55.7%
- 4.0-4.4%-2.6pt16.5%
- 2.5–2.9%-0.1pt10.3%
+6 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 2 (50 bps)+2.0pt60.2%
- 3 (75 bps)-1.3pt23.3%
- 1 (25 bps)-1.0pt15.5%
+3 more outcomes
- Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- NYC median asking rent in December 2026
- CPI year-over-year in Dec 2026
- September Inflation China - Annual
- September 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core
- CPI core in September
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - September
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Colombia minimum wage growth minus inflation in 2027
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026??
- Kalshi prices No at 95% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026? resolve?
- Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 10, 2026.
- How is Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that year-over-year Core CPI inflation is below 2.2% in any remaining 2026 monthly CPI release after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.