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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Inflation
  3. Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026?
Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026?

Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026?

InflationOne-Off6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 16%
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0.9

Liquidity

$160.7

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

15.0% / 17.0%

Spread

13.3%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Apr 21, 26, 4:00 PMDec 10, 26, 1:29 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes16%

Rules

Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that year-over-year Core CPI inflation is below 2.2% in any remaining 2026 monthly CPI release after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This market covers only CPI releases scheduled to occur in calendar year 2026 and does not include the CPI release scheduled for January 2027, even though that release may report December 2026 data.
  • The last covered CPI release is the November 2026 CPI release, scheduled for Thursday, December 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,092.18+0.35%EthereumETH$1,637.45-0.47%SolanaSOL$64.18-1.60%

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Manifold Markets

In a true free market. Prices would naturally fall . In other words deflation

$85
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Active in these topics

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Rules

Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that year-over-year Core CPI inflation is below 2.2% in any remaining 2026 monthly CPI release after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This market covers only CPI releases scheduled to occur in calendar year 2026 and does not include the CPI release scheduled for January 2027, even though that release may report December 2026 data.
  • The last covered CPI release is the November 2026 CPI release, scheduled for Thursday, December 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.