PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
3.5% 37%+3.0ptLeader of 12 outcomes
Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$7.5K
Liquidity
$22.2K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Sep 11, 26, 3:28 PM UTCOct 15, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
September Inflation US - Monthly
PolymarketUS annual inflation rate (CPI) at the end of 2026?
FutuurSeptember Inflation China - Annual
PolymarketWill the year-over-year change in the Canada Consumer Price Index exceed 2.8% in September 2026? (Inflation) (Consumer prices) (Cost of living)?
ForecastExWill the year-over-year change in the Canada Consumer Price Index exceed 2.4% in September 2026? (Inflation) (Consumer prices) (Cost of living)?
ForecastExWill the year-over-year change in the Canada Consumer Price Index exceed 2.6% in September 2026? (Inflation) (Consumer prices) (Cost of living)?
ForecastExRules
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
- The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
- Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
- Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%).
- Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase78.4%
- No change20.6%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $148.5M
- 24h Vol
- $7.6M
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+1.0pt89%
- No-1.0pt11%
- Total Vol
- $9.2M
- 24h Vol
- $74.5K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt84%
- September Meeting+1.0pt80%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHISeptember 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%18%
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.3% or above6%
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.1% or below5%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.5K
POLYMARKETSouth Africa Annual Inflation 2026
- >5.0%+10.3pt28.9%
- 4.7-5.0%+11.8pt25%
- 4.4-4.7%+2.8pt23.1%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%+11.0pt99%
- Above 3.0%97%
- Above 3.3%96%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46.6K
- 24h Vol
- $7.1K
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI in September
- PPI YoY - September 2026
- Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- September Inflation China - Annual
- How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026?
- What will JD Vance say during his remarks in Olathe?
- Price of Dozen Eggs in September?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for September Inflation US - Annual?
- Polymarket prices 3.5% at 37% as of September 14, 2026.
- When does September Inflation US - Annual resolve?
- September Inflation US - Annual is scheduled to resolve on October 15, 2026.
- How is September Inflation US - Annual settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.