Current implied probability
25 bps increase 60.8%+8.0ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
≤89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$5.6M
Liquidity
$4.8M
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
1
7d Change
-21.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
May 13, 26, 9:23 PM UTCSep 16, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
- The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
- This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
- If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
- (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
- The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
Prediction Source Comparison
3 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for 25 bps increase is 62%. Quotes span about 3 percentage points between the widest venues. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference 25 bps increase 62% · 3 venues · 3 pt venue spread
- Also available on Kalshi — Fed decision in Sep 2026? · Hike 25bps 58%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Fed decision in September? · 25+ bps increase 62%
- Also available on Gemini — Fed decision in September? · Hike 25bps 58%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — Fed rate decision in September 2026 · Hike 25bps 56%
- Also available on Futuur — Fed interest rate decision — September 2026 · 25 bps increase 59%
- Also available on Limitless — Fed Decision in September? · 25 bps increase 62%
Open markets
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+7.0pt59.8%
- Fed maintains rate-8.0pt37.3%
- Cut 25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $45.8M
- 24h Vol
- $3.2M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+9.0pt56.5%
- Fed maintains rate-7.0pt39.7%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)-0.2pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.9pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt1%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHINext Fed rate hike?
- Before 2028+1.0pt88%
- Before July 2027+3.0pt86%
- Before 2027+1.0pt76%
- Total Vol
- $4.2M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change-2.0pt64.7%
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt32.4%
- 25 bps decrease-1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+10.0pt75%
- September Meeting+7.0pt61%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Decision in December?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Will the Fed raise the rate 25bps in September 2026?
- How many dissenting votes at the September Fed meeting?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed decision in September?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Fed Decision in September??
- Polymarket prices 25 bps increase at 61% as of September 11, 2026.
- When does Fed Decision in September? resolve?
- Fed Decision in September? is scheduled to resolve on September 16, 2026.
- How is Fed Decision in September? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
- Where else is Fed Decision in September? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi, Manifold Markets, Gemini, Robinhood (Rothera), Futuur, Limitless.