PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
25 bps increase 50%-3.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
88 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$49.6K
Liquidity
$494.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
50.0% / 51.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+9.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
May 13, 26, 9:23 PMSep 16, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
25 bps increase51%
Compare venues· 25 bps increase
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | High | 51% | — | $49.6K | $494.3K | 6 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi93% match · auto | High | 49% | — | $17.8K | $285.2K | 26 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Fed decision in Sep 2026?
1mo
-1.0pt48.5%
-1.0pt42.6%
4%
+2 more outcomes
85 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$378.5K
24h Vol$17.8K
KALSHIRules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
- The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
- This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
- If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
- (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
- The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.0k50.0%POLYMARKETWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? — Yesharishjindal8h ago
POLYMARKETWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? — Yesharishjindal8h ago$2.6k41.0%POLYMARKETWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? — Yestruthteller2d ago
POLYMARKETWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? — Yestruthteller2d ago$1.5k97.0%KALSHIHike >25bps — No3d ago
KALSHIHike >25bps — No3d ago$1.1k53.2%POLYMARKETWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? — YesTheEmprah3d ago
POLYMARKETWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? — YesTheEmprah3d ago$2.0k44.0%POLYMARKETWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? — YesTheReturnOfDarthMaul6d ago
POLYMARKETWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? — YesTheReturnOfDarthMaul6d ago$2.1k96.0%POLYMARKETWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? — NoConstancefung11d ago
POLYMARKETWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? — NoConstancefung11d ago$3.0k61.0%POLYMARKETWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? — YesDancewithRisk11d ago
POLYMARKETWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? — YesDancewithRisk11d ago$1.8k38.0%POLYMARKETWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? — YesBurgil13d ago
POLYMARKETWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? — YesBurgil13d agoVolume trend
$49.6kJul 226d of dataJul 27
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The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
- The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
- This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
- If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
- (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
- The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.