This market resolved: 25 bps increase
Resolved: Sep 16, 2026, 9:40 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 17, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
No change0%
50+ bps increase0%
50+ bps decrease3%
25 bps increase100%
25 bps decrease1%
25 bps increaseWon
50+ bps decreaseLost
25 bps decreaseLost
No changeLost
50+ bps increaseLost
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
- The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
- This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
- If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
- (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
- The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
