Economy

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

2.0%17d

Above 3.0%

-5.0%92%

Above 3.1%

-6.0%90%

Above 3.2%

-8.0%80%

+18 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$542.9K

24h Vol$10.6K

KALSHI

CPI in July

1.0%17d

Above -0.4%

+1.0%98%

Above -0.3%

97%

Above -0.2%

88%

+7 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$277.8K

24h Vol$5.6K

KALSHI

Recession this year?

1.0%6mo

89%

Yes

-1.0%11%

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$2.9M

24h Vol$3.5K

KALSHI

2026: Trump's dream year?

95%

Yes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$524.8K

24h Vol$2K

KALSHI

US GDP growth in Q2 2026?

7.0%4d

Above 0.0%

99%

Above 1.0%

95%

Above 0.5%

93%

+6 more outcomes

CoinRithm reference1.5–2.0%35%· ±0 pts

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$189.7K

24h Vol$4.2K

KALSHI

Unemployment in July

3.0%12d

Above 3.7%

98%

Above 3.8%

98%

Above 3.9%

97%

+11 more outcomes

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$69.1K

24h Vol$2.5K

KALSHI

More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?

0.2%7mo

Yes

+0.2%90%

10%

72 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$31.4M

24h Vol$177.3

KALSHI

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

2.0%1y

79%

Yes

+2.0%21%

56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$25.9M

24h Vol$147

KALSHI

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

18.8%6mo

0-1%

-4.5%56%

1-2%

+18.8%39%

-5.5%5%

+4 more outcomes

68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$57.4K

24h Vol$4.4K

POLYMARKET

US economic state at the end of 2026?

3.5%6mo

Soft Landing

+3.5%62%

Overheating

24%

Stagflation

+0.5%14%

+1 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceSoft landing62%· ±0 pts

79 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$55.2K

24h Vol$1.8K

POLYMARKET

Jobs numbers in Jul 2026?

4.0%12d

Above -25,000

96%

Above 0

93%

Above 10,000

-1.0%91%

+10 more outcomes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$61.2K

24h Vol$583.1

KALSHI

State of the economy at the end of 2026

2.3%5mo

Soft landing

+2.3%62%

Overheating

-5.5%20%

Stagflation

12%

+1 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceSoft landing62%· ±0 pts

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$51.5K

24h Vol$1.1K

KALSHI

How high will unemployment get in 2026?

0.8%5mo

Above 4.5%

44%

Above 4.8%

17%

Above 5%

+0.8%10%

+11 more outcomes

56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$697.4K

24h Vol$117.7

KALSHI

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

1.0%17d

Above 2.1%

+1.0%98%

Above 2.2%

86%

Above 2.3%

80%

+12 more outcomes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$68.9K

24h Vol$498.7

KALSHI

Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

2.0%2mo

53%

Yes

-2.0%47%

CoinRithm reference47%· ±0 pts

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$52.2K

24h Vol$665.5

KALSHI

US recession by end of 2026?

0.5%6mo

88%

Yes

+0.0%12%

CoinRithm reference12%· ±1 pts

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$1.7M

24h Vol$382.1

POLYMARKET

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?

18.5%3mo

3.0–3.4%

+18.5%43%

2.5–2.9%

-7.0%22%

2.0–2.4%

-11.5%14%

+5 more outcomes

68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.9K

24h Vol$1.9K

POLYMARKET

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

57%

Yes

43%

Community forecast347 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?

0.4%3d

1.5-2.0%

+1.0%44%

1.0-1.5%

-2.0%32%

2.0-2.5%

+2.1%25%

+5 more outcomes

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$31.8K

24h Vol$564.7

POLYMARKET

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

2.4%6mo

0-1.0%

71%

1.0-2.0%

+0.5%16%

<0%

-2.4%8%

+6 more outcomes

56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$25.5K

24h Vol$233.3

POLYMARKET

Will the national debt surpass 40 trillion during Trumps presidency?

Yes

97.4%

2.6%

Community forecast16 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?

2.0%12d

Exactly 4.3%

-2.0%38%

Exactly 4.2%

-2.0%29%

Exactly 4.4%

14%

+20 more outcomes

60 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$40K

24h Vol$162

KALSHI

Unemployment in August

4.0%1mo

Above 4.9%

97%

Above 4.0%

+7.0%93%

Above 3.9%

90%

+11 more outcomes

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$6.4K

24h Vol$282

KALSHI

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

1.0%2mo

4.3-4.6%

+1.5%45%

4.6-4.9%

-1.0%37%

4.0-4.3%

-1.0%12%

+6 more outcomes

60 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$8.6K

24h Vol$169.7

POLYMARKET

Will there be a real estate crash in the US in 2026?

94.3%

Yes

5.7%

Community forecast48 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the next US recession start?

5mo

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

Q4 2024

+3 more outcomes

49 • Low qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$514.4K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

US real GDP growth in 2026?

7mo

1.6% to 2.0%

26%

2.1% to 2.5%

24%

2.6% to 3.0%

15%

+11 more outcomes

56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$274.1K

24h Vol$0.6

KALSHI

Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2040?

13y

63%

Yes

37%

Community forecast22 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If US Real GDP reaches 130% of prior years by 2035, which of these stocks will have the highest total return?

Other

+3.0%25.5%

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)

-0.4%11.4%

NVIDIA (NVDA)

-0.4%10.3%

+11 more outcomes

Community forecast11 forecastersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Recession in Australia in 2026?

5mo

81.2%

Yes

18.8%

Community forecast28 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?

2040 and later

53.4%

2027

12.1%

2030-2039

10%

+6 more outcomes

Community forecast16 forecastersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2027?

5mo

96.9%

Yes

3.1%

Community forecast21 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?

72.2%

Yes

27.8%

Community forecast10 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?

83.7%

Yes

16.3%

Community forecast18 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

3mo

Shutdown & Democratic

86%

Shutdown & Republican

13%

No Shutdown & Democratic

-1.8%0%

+2 more outcomes

72 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$329K

24h Vol$4.2

POLYMARKET

2026: Trump's bad year?

3.0%1y

88%

Yes

-3.0%12%

56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$213.2K

24h Vol$5

KALSHI

Recession in 2027?

60%

Yes

40%

56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$72.1K

24h Vol$81.2

KALSHI

Will there be a Trump economic boom?

0.1%2y

70%

Yes

-0.1%30%

83 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$171K

24h Vol$14

KALSHI

Unemployment in October

1.0%3mo

Above 3.7%

-1.0%92%

Above 3.8%

-4.0%87%

Above 3.9%

79%

+11 more outcomes

60 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$9.2K

24h Vol$168

KALSHI

Which countries will have a recession before 2027?

Japan

19%

United Kingdom

India

+1 more outcomes

49 • Low qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$166.7K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?

3.0%3y

84%

Yes

-3.0%16%

56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$122.3K

24h Vol$4

KALSHI

Will Real Estate Prices in the US increase by at least 25% by the end of 2027?

75.6%

Yes

24.4%

Community forecast40 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression?

5mo

95.7%

Yes

4.3%

Community forecast32 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the World's GDP double in 5 years?

87.7%

Yes

12.3%

Community forecast49 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?

1.0%2mo

Exactly 4.4%

17%

Exactly 4.3%

10%

Exactly 4.5%

10%

+20 more outcomes

44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$3.9K

24h Vol$100

KALSHI

Will unemployment in the US be higher in September 2026 than in either September 2022 or September 2024?

3mo

Yes

91.2%

8.8%

Community forecast19 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Unemployment in November

8.0%4mo

Above 3.7%

91%

Above 3.8%

91%

Above 3.9%

85%

+11 more outcomes

28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$3K

24h Vol$126

KALSHI

July Unemployment Rate

0.6%12d

4.3%

-0.5%40%

4.2%

+1.0%31%

4.1%

-0.5%14%

+6 more outcomes

49 • Low qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$14.7K

24h Vol$0

POLYMARKET

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Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

CPI in July

Recession this year?

2026: Trump's dream year?

US GDP growth in Q2 2026?

Unemployment in July

More tech layoffs in 20​26 than in 2025?

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

US economic state at the end of 2026?

Jobs numbers in Jul 2026?

State of the economy at the end of 2026

How high will unemployment get in 2026?

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

Will the national debt surpass 40 trillion during Trumps presidency?

Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?

Unemployment in August

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

Will there be a real estate crash in the US in 2026?

When will the next US recession start?

US real GDP growth in 2026?

Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2040?

If US Real GDP reaches 130% of prior years by 2035, which of these stocks will have the highest total return?

Recession in Australia in 2026?

When will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?

Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2027?

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?

[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

2026: Trump's bad year?

Recession in 2027?

Will there be a Trump economic boom?

Unemployment in October

Which countries will have a recession before 2027?

China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?

Will Real Estate Prices in the US increase by at least 25% by the end of 2027?

Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression?

Will the World's GDP double in 5 years?

Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?

Will unemployment in the US be higher in September 2026 than in either September 2022 or September 2024?

Unemployment in November

July Unemployment Rate

More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?