Current implied probability
Soft Landing 48.5%-8.0ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$613.8
Liquidity
$4.2K
Medium liquiditySpread
11.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
5
7d Change
-11.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Apr 24, 26, 9:49 PM UTCJan 31, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US economic recession in 2026?
FutuurWill the US have an economic depression before January 2030?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a Trump economic boom?
KalshiWhen will the next big economic crash occur?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketRules
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release.
- The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
- This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
- If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
- This market will resolve to “the named outcome (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
- This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — State of the economy at the end of 2026 · Soft landing 56%
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $662.8K
- 24h Vol
- $55.1K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417.9K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $92.7K
- 24h Vol
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $21.3K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US economic state at the end of 2026??
- Polymarket prices Soft Landing at 48% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does US economic state at the end of 2026? resolve?
- US economic state at the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 31, 2027.
- How is US economic state at the end of 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release.
- Where else is US economic state at the end of 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.