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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Inflation
  3. US economic state at the end of 2026?
US economic state at the end of 2026?

US economic state at the end of 2026?

1.5% (24h)InflationOne-OffEconomy7mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Overheating
Overheating 47%-3.0%
Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$3.4

Liquidity

$1.2K

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

6.0% / 29.0%

Spread

383.3%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Apr 24, 26, 9:54 PMJan 31, 27, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Overheating47%

Rules

The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release.

Polymarket
  • The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
  • This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
  • If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
  • This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
  • This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.

Related Markets

Inflation in June 2026 (CPI YoY)

Inflation in June 2026 (CPI YoY)

$60.8
Above 4.0%: 45%KalshiKALSHI
Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

$49.6
Above 4.0%: 50%KalshiKALSHI
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)

Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)

$7.2
Above 4.9%: 42%KalshiKALSHI
How high will inflation get in 2026?

How high will inflation get in 2026?

$29.9K
Above 4%: 100%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
June Inflation US - Annual

June Inflation US - Annual

$767.3
4.1%: 23%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

$483.7
5.50-5.99%: 27%PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,139.07+0.60%EthereumETH$1,638.94-0.18%SolanaSOL$64.24-1.35%DogecoinDOGE$0.084-1.03%XRPXRP$1.11-2.31%BNBBNB$592.00-0.15%

Related News

BlackRock warns of energy shock as May CPI is set to show acceleration in inflationCoindeskStrategy's bitcoin purchase fails to stir BTC priceCoindeskBitcoin price stalls near $64K before key U.S. inflation dataCrypto NewsBitcoin braces for inflation shock as CPI puts bulls on edgeCrypto NewsBlame bitcoin's tumble on rising inflation, not Strategy, 10xResearch arguesCoindeskU.S. inflation, European Central Bank rate decision: Crypto Week AheadCoindesk

Rules

The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release.

Polymarket
  • The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
  • This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
  • If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
  • This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
  • This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.