Current implied probability
Soft Landing 62%+3.5%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
79 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.8K
Liquidity
$11.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
61.0% / 62.0%
Spread
1.6%
Tight spread7d Change
+20.0%
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Apr 24, 26, 9:49 PMJan 31, 27, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Soft Landing62%
Compare venues· Soft landing
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketThis pageBest overall | High | 62% | 0pt | $1.8K | $11.7K | 6 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi93% match · verified | Medium | 62% | 0pt | $1.1K | $23.9K | 26 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
State of the economy at the end of 2026
2.3%5mo
+2.3%62%
-5.5%20%
12%
+1 more outcomes
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$51.5K
24h Vol$1.1K
KALSHIRules
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release.
- The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
- This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
- If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
- This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
- This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$1.8kJul 224d of dataJul 26
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The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release.
- The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
- This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
- If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
- This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
- This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.