FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 90%
No 90%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1K
Low liquidityTraders
8
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US economic state at the end of 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRecession this year?
KalshiRules
This event predicts whether the United States will experience an economic recession at any point during calendar year 2026.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be a formal recession determination issued by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
- If the NBER officially determines that the United States entered a recession that includes any period in 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Recessions are not defined solely by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, but by a significant decline in economic activity across multiple indicators, as assessed by the NBER.
- If the NBER announces a recession but determines it began and ended entirely outside of 2026, this market will resolve to "No".