LimitlessCheck availabilityNo KYCLimited verified dataCurrent implied probabilityYes 10.9%
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
-
Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Jan 7, 26, 4:44 PMFeb 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes11%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Manifold Markets
US recession in 2026?
5mo
88.4%
11.6%
Community forecast134 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Also available on Polymarket
US recession by end of 2026?
6mo
88%
12%
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$1.7M
24h Vol$382.1
POLYMARKETRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
- If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$0.00Jul 621d of dataJul 26
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
- If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product