Current implied probability
Above 3.4% 29%+2.0%Leader of 21 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$10.6K
Liquidity
$396K
High liquidityBid / Ask
27.0% / 31.0%
Spread
14.8%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 21 minutes ago
May 12, 26, 4:00 PMAug 12, 26, 12:29 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Above 3.4%29%
Large trades
$2.0k98.0%
KALSHIAbove 3.6% — No2d ago
KALSHIAbove 3.6% — No2d ago$1.5k73.0%KALSHIAbove 3.4% — No2d ago
KALSHIAbove 3.4% — No2d ago$1.2k98.0%KALSHIAbove 3.7% — No5d ago
KALSHIAbove 3.7% — No5d ago$1.4k68.0%KALSHIAbove 3.4% — No5d ago
KALSHIAbove 3.4% — No5d ago$1.9k96.0%KALSHIAbove 3.7% — No8d ago
KALSHIAbove 3.7% — No8d ago$2.0k98.0%KALSHIAbove 3.8% — No8d ago
KALSHIAbove 3.8% — No8d ago$1.8k89.0%KALSHIAbove 3.6% — No9d ago
KALSHIAbove 3.6% — No9d ago$1.8k90.0%KALSHIAbove 3.2% — Yes10d ago
KALSHIAbove 3.2% — Yes10d agoVolume trend
$10.6kJul 225d of dataJul 26
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
$71Above 3.3%: 87%KALSHI
KALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
$0Above 3.0%: 99%KALSHI
KALSHIInflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)
$0Above 3.0%: 97%KALSHI
KALSHI
US economic state at the end of 2026?
$1.8KSoft Landing: 62%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Did US Real Median Household Income Increase in 2023?
$22Yes: 76.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
$4.4K0-1%: 56%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
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If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.0% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.1% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.2% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.3% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.4% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.