Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (97.5%)
Resolved: Oct 7, 2026, 7:45 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 8, 2026, 9:36 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes97.5%
No2.5%
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExRules
Resolves according to the Real Median Household Adjusted Income After Taxes and Transfers Section of the Distribution of Household Income in 2023 report by The Congressional Budget Office.
- Here's the 2022 report.
- See the supplemental data excel sheet for the statistic.
