Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
One-OffPoliticsElectionUS PoliticsBusiness & CorporateMacro & Economy3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 66.3%
Market quality
83 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$3.6K
Liquidity
$409.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
33.0% / 34.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Oct 24, 25, 7:49 PMNov 3, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes34%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Kalshi
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
1y
64%
36%
80 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$612.3K
24h Vol$1.3K
KALSHI
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
5mo
67%
33%
Community forecast435 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election.
- You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$9.9k62.0%KALSHINo2d ago
KALSHINo2d agoVolume trend
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A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election.
- You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.