Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
1.5 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsElectionUS PoliticsBusiness & CorporateMacro & Economy1mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 69.3%-1.5pt
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.5K
Liquidity
$87.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
30.0% / 31.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
27
7d Change
+2.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Oct 24, 25, 7:49 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election.
- You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.