Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElectionBusiness & Corporate2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 74%
Forecasters
454
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleOct 25, 25, 7:38 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will The California Billionaire Wealth Tax pass if it is on the ballot in 2026?
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PolymarketWill California pass a wealth tax referendum in 2026?
PredictItAndy Burnham to announce wealth tax before December 2026
Manifold MarketsRules
The "2026 Billionaire Tax Act" is a proposed initiative that would confiscate 5% of California billionaires wealth.
- https://calmatters.org/health/2025/10/billionaire-tax-initiative/
- Will a ballot measure that is basically this get on the ballot and pass in California by EoY 2026? Resolves YES if so, NO otherwise.
- Update 2025-12-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if the ballot measure gets on the ballot and passes, even if it is subsequently held up by a court injunction and not actually in effect by end of 2026.
- The resolution is based on whether it passes, not whether it takes effect.
- Update 2026-01-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve N/A under any circumstances.