Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElectionBusiness & Corporate3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70.1%
Forecasters
441
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleOct 25, 25, 7:38 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will The California Billionaire Wealth Tax pass if it is on the ballot in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot?
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KalshiCalifornia wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?
PolymarketAndy Burnham to announce wealth tax before December 2026
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Manifold MarketsRules
The "2026 Billionaire Tax Act" is a proposed initiative that would confiscate 5% of California billionaires wealth.
- https://calmatters.org/health/2025/10/billionaire-tax-initiative/
- Will a ballot measure that is basically this get on the ballot and pass in California by EoY 2026? Resolves YES if so, NO otherwise.
- Update 2025-12-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if the ballot measure gets on the ballot and passes, even if it is subsequently held up by a court injunction and not actually in effect by end of 2026.
- The resolution is based on whether it passes, not whether it takes effect.
- Update 2026-01-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve N/A under any circumstances.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass? resolve?
- Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The "2026 Billionaire Tax Act" is a proposed initiative that would confiscate 5% of California billionaires wealth.
- Where else is Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi, Polymarket.