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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

1.0% (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElectionBusiness & Corporate1y
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 39%+1.0%
Market quality

49 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$14.2

Liquidity

$1.3K

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

38.0% / 39.0%

Spread

2.6%

Tight spread
Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Dec 29, 25, 3:00 PMNov 3, 27, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes39%

Manifold MarketsAlso available on Manifold Markets

Manifold Markets

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

6mo
Manifold Markets
Yes
35%
Manifold Markets
No
65%
Community forecast418 forecastersType: binary
Total Vol$244.1K
24h Vol$4.8K
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Rules

If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California passes, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A referendum "passes" when it meets ALL of the following conditions: receives the minimum percentage of "Yes" or "For" votes required by the applicable constitution, law, or electoral rules (whether simple majority, supermajority, or other threshold), meets any minimum voter turnout requirements if applicable, and is certified as passed by the official electoral authority.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,559.90+1.92%EthereumETH$1,646.97+1.11%SolanaSOL$64.87+1.28%DogecoinDOGE$0.0847+1.32%XRPXRP$1.11+0.11%BNBBNB$594.30+1.44%

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Rules

If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California passes, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A referendum "passes" when it meets ALL of the following conditions: receives the minimum percentage of "Yes" or "For" votes required by the applicable constitution, law, or electoral rules (whether simple majority, supermajority, or other threshold), meets any minimum voter turnout requirements if applicable, and is certified as passed by the official electoral authority.