Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
4.0% (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElectionBusiness & Corporate1y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 34%-4.0%
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.1K
Liquidity
$196.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
34.0% / 37.0%
Spread
8.8%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Dec 29, 25, 3:00 PMNov 3, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes34%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Polymarket
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
3mo
66%
35%
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$3.6M
24h Vol$610.4
POLYMARKET
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
5mo
66%
34%
Community forecast435 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California passes, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner.
- See full rules for details.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$2.1kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California passes, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner.
- See full rules for details.