2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
1.0 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms3mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Democrats sweep 62.8%-1.0ptLeader of 4 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Democrats sweep 62.8%-1.0ptMarket quality
≤89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.6M
Open interest
$23.9M
High open interestSpread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Dec 11, 25, 3:00 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?
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Manifold MarketsBalance of power after 2028 US elections?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketTexas Senate winner?
KalshiRules
If ALL of the following occur: House Control: Democratic, Senate Control: Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:United States Congress
- This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: House Control uses CONTROL, Senate Control uses CONTROL. Each CONTROL component may resolve on an accelerated basis as outlined in the full rules.
Rules for each outcome
- Democrats sweep
- If ALL of the following occur: House Control: Democratic, Senate Control: Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D-House, R-Senate
- If ALL of the following occur: House Control: Democratic, Senate Control: Republican, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Republicans sweep
- If ALL of the following occur: House Control: Republican, Senate Control: Republican, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R-House, D-Senate
- If ALL of the following occur: House Control: Republican, Senate Control: Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on PredictIt — What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 election? · Dem. House & Senate 64%
- Also available on Limitless — Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · Democrats Sweep 65%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms? · Democratic House and Senate 66%
- Also available on Smarkets — Balance of Power After the 2026 Midterms · Democrats Senate + Democrats House 63%
- Also available on Polymarket — Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · Democrats Sweep 64%