What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?
One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Democratic House and Senate 49.5%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
106
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Nov 15, 24, 10:37 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.3%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?
Manifold MarketsWho controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms?
KalshiHow many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?
KalshiBalance of power after 2028 US elections?
Manifold MarketsBalance of Power After the 2026 Midterms
SmarketsRules
Resolves to whichever party's caucuses are elected to majorities in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.
- A majority in the House is defined as having more than half of the voting Representatives, and a majority in the Senate is defined as having more than half of the Senators, or exactly half and the vice president.
- Independents or members of third parties who caucus with another party are considered part of that party for the sake of determining the majority.
- Following the 2024 election, there are two such independents remaining in the Senate, both of whom caucus with the Democrats.
- Independents or third party members who do not caucus with either major party will not be considered a part of either party - thus it is in theory possible that neither party could have the majority in one of the chambers.
- In that case, the market will resolve to "Other" or an option stating that no party has the majority in the chamber if such an option has been added.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Smarkets — Balance of Power After the 2026 Midterms · Democrats Senate + Democrats House 44%
- Also available on Polymarket — Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · Democrats Sweep 52%
- Also available on Kalshi — 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? · D-House, D-Senate 46%
- Also available on PredictIt — What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 election? · Dem. House & Senate 46%
- Also available on Limitless — Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · Democrats Sweep 51%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms? · Democrats Sweep 50%
Open markets
Politics
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms??
- Manifold Markets prices Democratic House and Senate at 50% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms? resolve?
- What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms? is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026.
- How is What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to whichever party's caucuses are elected to majorities in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.