What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?
One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastDemocratic House and Senate 42.4%-0.3%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
99
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleNov 15, 24, 10:37 PMNov 4, 26, 5:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Democratic House and Senate42%
Compare venues· Democratic House, Republican Senate
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Also available on PredictIt
What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 election?
41%
38%
23%
+1 more outcomes
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITAlso available on Polymarket
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
0.5%3mo
44%
41%
+0.5%14%
+2 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$8.5M
24h Vol$11.9K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Kalshi
2026 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
3.0%6mo
+3.0%46%
-1.0%17%
-0.1%2%
+1 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$8M
24h Vol$61.9K
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?
3mo
-0.3%42.4%
+0.1%12.1%
0.8%
+2 more outcomes
Community forecast128 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
Resolves to whichever party's caucuses are elected to majorities in the U.S.
- House of Representatives and Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.
- A majority in the House is defined as having more than half of the voting Representatives, and a majority in the Senate is defined as having more than half of the Senators, or exactly half and the vice president.
- Independents or members of third parties who caucus with another party are considered part of that party for the sake of determining the majority.
- Following the 2024 election, there are two such independents remaining in the Senate, both of whom caucus with the Democrats.
- Independents or third party members who do not caucus with either major party will not be considered a part of either party - thus it is in theory possible that neither party could have the majority in one of the chambers.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$16Jul 103d of dataJul 12
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Resolves to whichever party's caucuses are elected to majorities in the U.S.
- House of Representatives and Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.
- A majority in the House is defined as having more than half of the voting Representatives, and a majority in the Senate is defined as having more than half of the Senators, or exactly half and the vice president.
- Independents or members of third parties who caucus with another party are considered part of that party for the sake of determining the majority.
- Following the 2024 election, there are two such independents remaining in the Senate, both of whom caucus with the Democrats.
- Independents or third party members who do not caucus with either major party will not be considered a part of either party - thus it is in theory possible that neither party could have the majority in one of the chambers.