KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 89%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$6.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
8.8% / 10.0%
Spread
1.2 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Feb 11, 26, 5:00 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
If Neal Dunn leaves the House before November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bloomberg NewsCNNFox NewsMSNBCNeal DunnPoliticoReutersthe Associated Pressthe body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is heldthe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington Post
- Neal Dunn must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms??
- Kalshi prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms? resolve?
- Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Neal Dunn leaves the House before November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.