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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?
Manifold Markets

Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?

One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection4mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Democrats Sweep 49.5%
Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters

109

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Jul 21, 25, 11:47 PMNov 4, 26, 7:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Manifold Markets
Other
0.4%

Selected outcome

Democrats Sweep50%

Rules

This market will resolve based on the outcome of the 2026 United States midterm elections.

Manifold Markets
  • A party will be considered to have control of the House of Representatives if it secures a majority of voting seats.
  • A party will be considered to have control of the Senate if it holds:
  • A majority of voting Senate seats, or
  • Exactly half of the seats plus the Vice Presidency (which casts tie-breaking votes).
  • A candidate’s party affiliation is determined by how they are listed on the ballot or their clearly identifiable public affiliation at the time the 2026 midterm results are called.

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Rules

This market will resolve based on the outcome of the 2026 United States midterm elections.

Manifold Markets
  • A party will be considered to have control of the House of Representatives if it secures a majority of voting seats.
  • A party will be considered to have control of the Senate if it holds:
  • A majority of voting Senate seats, or
  • Exactly half of the seats plus the Vice Presidency (which casts tie-breaking votes).
  • A candidate’s party affiliation is determined by how they are listed on the ballot or their clearly identifiable public affiliation at the time the 2026 midterm results are called.