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Data as of Oct 7, 2026, 4:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Smarkets data is temporarily unavailable. Odds shown are the last values we collected on Oct 7, 2026.
Current implied probabilityDemocrats Senate + Democrats House 62.9%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
19 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$46
Liquidity
$13.6K
Medium liquidityMarket data
Updated 17 days ago
StaleTrends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 election?
PredictItBalance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsBalance of power after the 2028 elections
Manifold MarketsBalance of power after 2028 US elections?
Manifold MarketsTexas Senate winner?
KalshiRules
Resolves based on the official results of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
- House Control: Achieved by the party winning a strict majority of voting seats.
- Senate Control: Achieved by the party holding more than half of the voting members, or exactly half plus the tie-breaking Vice President.
- Party Affiliation: Determined by ballot listing at the time the race is called.
- Independent/unaffiliated candidates count toward the party they have most recently expressed intent to caucus with.
- Tie-Breakers (Ambiguity): House: Resolves based on the party of the first elected Speaker of the House.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · Democrats Sweep 65%
- Also available on PredictIt — What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 election? · Dem. House & Senate 67%
- Also available on Kalshi — 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? · Democrats sweep 65%
- Also available on Limitless — Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · Democrats Sweep 66%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?
