Current community forecast
Democrat trifecta 51%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
26
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+5.3 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 20, 25, 12:26 AM UTCNov 7, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Update 2025-10-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator plans to use reference markets closer to the election to determine resolution, making this a derivative market.
- Expected resolution criteria (pending final reference market selection):
- Independents count for the party they caucus with
- Tie in Senate broken by VP
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Balance of power after the 2028 elections?
- Manifold Markets prices Democrat trifecta at 51% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Balance of power after the 2028 elections resolve?
- Balance of power after the 2028 elections is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2028.
- How is Balance of power after the 2028 elections settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Update 2025-10-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator plans to use reference markets closer to the election to determine resolution, making this a derivative market.