Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
2.0 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms12d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Democratic Party · —
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Stored reference
Democratic Party 68%
Democratic Party 68%Market quality
97 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$292.9K
Liquidity
$3.8M
High liquidityOpen interest
$2.7M
Bid / Ask
— / —
Democratic PartySpread
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Comments
239
7d Change
+4.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jul 11, 25, 7:48 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · Democratic Party
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.
- A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats.
- If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency.
- If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated.
- The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
- All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included.
Prediction Source Comparison
3 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's cross-venue reference probability for Democratic Party is 68%. The venue spread is about 1 percentage point. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference Democratic Party 68% · 3 venues · 1 pt venue spread
- Also available on Limitless — Which party will win the Senate in 2026? · Democratic Party 68%
- Also available on ForecastEx — Will the Republican Party win a US Senate Majority in the 2026 general election? · No 65%
- Also available on Kalshi — Which party will win the U.S. Senate? · Democratic Party 67%