PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Democratic Party 51%Vig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
85 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$9.5K
Liquidity
$598.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
49.0% / 50.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
118
7d Change
-1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jul 11, 25, 7:48 PMNov 3, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.
- A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats.
- If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency.
- If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated.
- The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
- All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included.
Prediction Source Comparison
3 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Democratic Party is 52%. Quotes span about 4 percentage points between the widest venues. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference Democratic Party 52% · 3 venues · 4 pt venue spread
- Also available on Gemini — Which party will win the U.S. Senate? · Republican Party 52%
- Also available on Limitless — Which party will win the Senate in 2026? · Democratic Party 51%
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.2pt20%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $908.6K
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.1pt36.5%
- Édouard Philippe+1.5pt30.2%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.6%
+38 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance-3.0pt50%
- Marco Rubio+1.3pt19%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva54.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.8pt42.6%
- Renan Santos+0.2pt2%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt17.2%
- Jon Ossoff16.2%
- Gavin Newsom13.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $210.6M
- 24h Vol
- $525.3K
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-1.7pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.4pt13%
- Jon Ossoff11%
+49 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which party will win the Senate in 2026??
- Polymarket prices Democratic Party at 51% as of September 4, 2026.
- When does Which party will win the Senate in 2026? resolve?
- Which party will win the Senate in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Which party will win the Senate in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.
- Where else is Which party will win the Senate in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Gemini, Limitless.