Elections | Prediction Markets

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom

24%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

-0.1%9%

Kamala Harris

+125 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$1.2B

24h Vol$765K

POLYMARKET

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Robert F. Kennedy

49%

J.D. Vance

-0.3%34%

Marco Rubio

-1.8%24%

+125 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$655M

24h Vol$611.3K

POLYMARKET

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance

+0.1%15%

Marco Rubio

-0.8%15%

Gavin Newsom

-0.5%14%

+125 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$623.7M

24h Vol$518.9K

POLYMARKET

Next French Presidential Election

10mo

Jordan Bardella

+1.0%28%

Édouard Philippe

18%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

13%

+125 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$96M

24h Vol$968.6K

POLYMARKET

California Governor Election Winner

4mo

Xavier Becerra

+0.3%88%

Steve Hilton

-0.3%7%

Rick Caruso

+42 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$38.2M

24h Vol$2.4M

POLYMARKET

Brazil Presidential Election

4.0%3mo

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

+4.0%45%

Flávio Bolsonaro

-0.9%28%

Renan Santos

-0.8%17%

+29 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$97.7M

24h Vol$341.7K

POLYMARKET

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

6mo

Nicolás Maduro

-4.2%70%

Delcy Rodríguez

-1.0%14%

María Corina Machado

-0.7%3%

+54 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$90.5M

24h Vol$81.3K

POLYMARKET

Colombia Presidential Election

1.0%10d

Abelardo de la Espriella

+1.0%86%

Candidate M

50%

Iván Cepeda Castro

-1.0%14%

+25 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$36.4M

24h Vol$103.7K

POLYMARKET

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

0.1%6mo

Benjamin Netanyahu

+5.0%40%

Gadi Eizenkot

-0.3%27%

Naftali Bennett

-4.0%24%

+25 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$14.6M

24h Vol$230.1K

POLYMARKET

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

1.5%3mo

United Russia (ER)

+1.5%56%

New People (NL)

-0.9%36%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

-0.1%5%

+31 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$10.6M

24h Vol$122.4K

POLYMARKET

Makerfield by-election Winner

0.1%6d

Andy Burnham

+1.0%86%

Robert Kenyon

-2.0%13%

Rebecca Shepherd

-0.1%2%

+30 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$3.2M

24h Vol$166.8K

POLYMARKET

Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)

30.4%

Fujimori 0.2–0.3%

+60.0%84%

Fujimori 0.1–0.2%

-17.5%9%

Fujimori 0.3–0.4%

-30.4%4%

+20 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$909.6K

24h Vol$728.2K

POLYMARKET

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

4mo

Democrats Sweep

44%

R Senate, D

37%

Republicans Sweep

18%

+2 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$7.6M

24h Vol$10K

POLYMARKET

Which party will win the House in 2026?

4mo

Democratic Party

82%

Republican Party

+1.0%20%

Other

+6 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$7.1M

24h Vol$13.7K

POLYMARKET

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

3mo

Flávio Bolsonaro

+4.0%65%

Renan Santos

+0.3%17%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

+29 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$3.7M

24h Vol$6.1K

POLYMARKET

Maine Senate Election Winner

2.5%4mo

Democrat

+2.5%66%

Republican

-3.0%35%

Person A

+10 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$478.5K

24h Vol$29.7K

POLYMARKET

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

1.0%3y

James Talarico

+1.0%2%

Donald J. Trump Jr.

+0.5%2%

Jon Ossoff

+0.4%6%

+22 more outcomes

77 • High qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidity

Total Vol$432.7K

24h Vol$6K

KALSHI

Texas Senate Election Winner

4mo

Ken Paxton (R)

-1.0%57%

James Talarico (D)

43%

Person B

+10 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$489.3K

24h Vol$5.7K

POLYMARKET

Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Margin of Victory

11d

Other

50%

Espriella 5-10%

31%

Espriella 10-15%

-5.0%28%

+3 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$87.7K

24h Vol$9.1K

POLYMARKET

Berlin State Election Winner

1.0%3mo

CDU

+1.0%30%

Linke

+1.0%22%

Grüne

+0.1%22%

+21 more outcomes

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$2.7M

24h Vol$4.4K

POLYMARKET

2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

6.0%4mo

Other

46%

Democrats 8-10%

-0.5%19%

Democrats 6-8%

+6.0%18%

+11 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$56.4K

24h Vol$5.5K

POLYMARKET

Makerfield by-election: 2nd Place

1.3%6d

Robert Kenyon

-1.0%83%

Andy Burnham

+1.8%9%

Rebecca Shepherd

-1.3%4%

+30 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$66.8K

24h Vol$10.4K

POLYMARKET

2028 Democratic presidential nominee

0.2%2y

Graham Platner

+0.2%1%

Wes Moore

-0.5%2%

Hunter Biden

-0.1%2%

+22 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$1.2M

24h Vol$4.6K

KALSHI

Who will Trump announce as next Director of National Intelligence?

11.9%6mo

John Ratcliffe

+3.9%19%

No announcement by December 31

-11.9%15%

Pete Hoekstra

15%

+48 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$84.6K

24h Vol$5.1K

POLYMARKET

Ukraine election called by...?

3.5%6mo

December

-3.5%14%

June 30,

-0.3%2%

December 31, 2025

-0.1%0%

+1 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$1.6M

24h Vol$8.1K

POLYMARKET

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

4.0%11mo

Nithya Raman

-4.0%34%

Karen Bass

+2.0%65%

Rick Caruso

+7 more outcomes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$828K

24h Vol$3.4K

KALSHI

Russia Parliamentary Election Winner

3mo

United Russia (ER)

+0.1%96%

New People (NL)

+0.1%2%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)

+0.1%1%

+31 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.5M

24h Vol$1.9K

POLYMARKET

Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner

0.5%3mo

Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)

91%

Moderate Party (M)

Sweden Democrats (SD)

-0.5%4%

+33 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.1M

24h Vol$2.6K

POLYMARKET

Alaska Governor Election Winner

5.2%4mo

Tom Begich

+2.0%31%

Bernadette Wilson

25%

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

-0.1%16%

+37 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1M

24h Vol$2.4K

POLYMARKET

Quebec General Election Winner

6.0%3mo

-0.5%54%

PLQ

-8.5%26%

CAQ

+6.0%20%

+30 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$564.8K

24h Vol$4.9K

POLYMARKET

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Scott Wiener

70.1%

Bruce Lou

0.1%

Christine Pelosi

0.3%

+6 more outcomes

Community forecast153 forecastersType: multiple choice

Total Vol$1.2M

24h Vol$1K

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

7.5%3mo

Renan Santos

+7.5%51%

Romeu Zema

-5.0%16%

Ronaldo Caiado

-0.5%14%

+29 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$320.9K

24h Vol$1.8K

POLYMARKET

California Governor winner?

0.1%1y

Steve Hilton

+0.1%10%

Xavier Becerra

+1.0%90%

Toni Atkins

+22 more outcomes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$463.7K

24h Vol$1.3K

KALSHI

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner

1.0%2mo

AfD

+1.0%95%

CDU

+0.1%6%

The Left

+31 more outcomes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$724.7K

24h Vol$1K

POLYMARKET

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

3.0%10mo

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

93%

Nathalie Arthaud

-4.5%80%

Édouard Philippe

+1.0%79%

+43 more outcomes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$106.3K

24h Vol$3.4K

POLYMARKET

France United Left Primary Winner

4mo

Canceled

+0.5%49%

Marine Tondelier

12%

François Ruffin

+0.5%5%

+22 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$91K

24h Vol$5.8K

POLYMARKET

Peru Presidential election winner?

1.9%10mo

Roberto Sánchez

-1.9%5%

Keiko Fujimori

+1.7%94%

Rafael López Aliaga

+18 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$81.3K

24h Vol$10.3K

KALSHI

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

2.5%1y

Javier Milei

-2.5%48%

Axel Kicillof

+2.0%43%

Mauricio Macri

-0.1%5%

+61 more outcomes

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$142.2K

24h Vol$2.4K

POLYMARKET

Democratic VP Nominee 2028

23.6%2y

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

+2.5%12%

Gretchen Whitmer

+2.0%7%

Ro Khanna

+1.4%7%

+125 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$36.7K

24h Vol$2K

POLYMARKET

Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Most votes from Bogotá

6.0%11d

Person I

50%

Person J

50%

Person K

50%

+6 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$39.6K

24h Vol$6.8K

POLYMARKET

São Paulo Governor Election Winner

1.1%3mo

Tarcísio de Freitas

-2.5%82%

Kim Kataguiri

+1.1%13%

Fernando Haddad

+0.2%4%

+22 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$73.9K

24h Vol$2.2K

POLYMARKET

Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

Gretchen Whitmer

1.9%

Pete Buttigieg

5.3%

Gavin Newsom

24%

+78 more outcomes

Community forecast1,845 forecastersType: multiple choice

Total Vol$2.1M

24h Vol$1.5K

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?

2.5%1mo

Yes

+0.0%5%

-0.0%95%

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$18.8K

24h Vol$10.5K

POLYMARKET

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

0.5%18d

June 30

-1.0%61%

June 22

-2.0%36%

June 15

-0.5%19%

+1 more outcomes

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$457.2K

24h Vol$4.7K

POLYMARKET

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Democratic

60%

Republican

41%

Party K

+12 more outcomes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.8M

24h Vol$278.6

POLYMARKET

NY-08 Democratic Primary Winner

0.5%11d

Hakeem Jeffries

+0.5%96%

Chi Ossé

-1.1%1%

Candidate C

+18 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$15.2K

24h Vol$5.2K

POLYMARKET

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

1.0%6mo

Rahm Emanuel

-1.0%23%

Kamala Harris

23%

Tucker Carlson

+0.5%18%

+69 more outcomes

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$717.3K

24h Vol$300.8

POLYMARKET

2028 Republican presidential nominee

Eric Trump

Donald J. Trump

-0.2%3%

Elon Musk

+22 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$472.5K

24h Vol$643.7

KALSHI

Election

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