Current implied probability
Sagal Abdi-Wali 65.3%-3.5ptLeader of 23 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
78 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$2.8K
Liquidity
$187.2K
High liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
5
7d Change
-13.5 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 1, 26, 4:14 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which party will win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?
Manifold MarketsHolborn and St Pancras By-Election - Labour to Win
SmarketsHolborn and St Pancras by-election: Reform UK vote percent
KalshiHolborn and St Pancras by-election: Labour Party vote percent
KalshiHolborn and St Pancras by-election: Green Party vote percent
KalshiSweden Parliamentary Election: 4th Place
PolymarketRules
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
- This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election.
- If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $837.2K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213M
- 24h Vol
- $477.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner?
- Polymarket prices Sagal Abdi-Wali at 65% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner resolve?
- Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2027.
- How is Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
- Where else is Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi, Smarkets.