Current implied probability
Marine Le Pen 27%+0.1%Leader of 128 outcomes
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$358K
Liquidity
$11.6M
High liquidityBid / Ask
2.5% / 2.6%
Spread
4.0%
Moderate spread7d Change
-0.7%
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Nov 13, 25, 11:09 PMApr 30, 27, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Marine Le Pen27%
Compare venues· Édouard Philippe
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketThis pageBest overall | High | 27% | -3pt | $358K | $11.6M | 4 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi70% match · auto | Medium | 30% | 0pt | $2K | $115K | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless80% match · auto | Low | 50% | +20pt | $0 | $0 | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets70% match · linked | — | 27% | -3pt | — | — | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets70% match · linked | — | 29% | -1pt | — | — | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets70% match · linked | — | 26% | -4pt | — | — | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
 PredictIt70% match · linked | — | 20% | -10pt | — | — | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Limitless
Next French Presidential Election
1y
50%
15.1%
50%
+3 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$2.6K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Kalshi
Next French presidential election winner?
1y
3%
+3.0%36%
-2.0%8%
+25 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$216.9K
24h Vol$2K
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be the next president of France?
1y
+0.3%27.2%
+0.1%3.4%
0.6%
+33 more outcomes
Community forecast153 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the 2027 french presidential election
11mo
+0.1%4.2%
+1.0%25.8%
+0.1%28.5%
+14 more outcomes
Community forecast71 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be the next president of France in 2027 ?
10mo
+0.7%28.4%
+1.6%26.4%
-3.4%5.2%
+3 more outcomes
Community forecast37 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on PredictIt
Who will win the next French presidential election?
25%
20%
12%
+6 more outcomes
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITRules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.
- This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
- The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round.
- If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
- This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
- This market includes any potential second round.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.6k97.4%Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? — NoNeymarJR-34850m ago
$1.0k97.6%Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? — No0xe76a…37c47h ago
$6.0k26.3%Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? — Yeslebouliste3d ago
$1.5k91.5%Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? — No0x9491…dea04d ago
$1.9k75.0%Nobeyoncecrime10d ago
Volume trend
$358.0kJul 210d of dataJul 11
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The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.
- This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
- The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round.
- If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
- This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
- This market includes any potential second round.