Current implied probability
Marine Le Pen 79%+53.5%Leader of 37 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$10.3K
Liquidity
$444.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
4.0% / 6.0%
Spread
50.0%
Wide spread7d Change
-66.5%
Market data
Updated 28 minutes ago
Jun 1, 26, 11:40 PMApr 30, 27, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Marine Le Pen79%
Compare venues· Marine Le Pen
Ordered by 24h volume| Venue | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketThis pageMost active | 79% | — | $10.3K | $444.6K | 28 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets | 47% | — | — | — | 5 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Who will make the second round of the 2027 French Presidental Election?
9mo
-26.8%36.5%
+29.6%46.7%
45.4%
+13 more outcomes
Community forecast22 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$6.2K
24h Vol$409.4
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.
- This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
- The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round.
- If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$10.3kJul 27d of dataJul 8
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The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.
- This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
- The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round.
- If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".