What are the current odds for Who will make the second round of the 2027 French Presidental Election??

Manifold Markets prices Marine Le Pen at 88.9% as of October 10, 2026.

Who will make the second round of the 2027 French Presidental Election?

0.7 pts (24h)One-OffPolitics Election Europe6mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Marine Le Pen 88.9%+0.7pt

Leader of 17 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

+1.5 pts

Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Jun 2, 26, 1:52 AM UTCApr 30, 27, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Rules

2027 French presidential election - Wikipedia

If no one receives a majority (50%+1) in the first round, the 2 candidates with the most votes advance to the second round.
This market resolves to the top 2 candidates in the first round.
If someone gets a majority of the vote in the first round, this market will resolve yes to that candidate only.
Resolves based on the next French election, even if it is early, in 2026.