How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
1.0 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS Politics6mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probability50 15.1%Leader of 15 outcomes
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$2K
Liquidity
$182.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
3.0% / 4.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 20 minutes ago
May 20, 26, 2:00 PMFeb 1, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
543%
Compare venues· 50
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall82% match · verified | High | 14% | 0pt | $1.6K | $330.6K | 20 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis pageMost active | High | 16% | +2pt | $2K | $182.8K | 20 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
0.1 pts3mo
24%
14%
14%
+8 more outcomes
83 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$2.7M
24h Vol$1.6K
POLYMARKETRules
If the Republican party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Republican party has exactly 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Republican party has exactly 46 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Republican party has exactly 47 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Republican party has exactly 48 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Republican party has exactly 49 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.4k23.0%POLYMARKETYesRememberAmalek26d ago
POLYMARKETYesRememberAmalek26d agoVolume trend
$2.0kJul 226d of dataJul 27
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If the Republican party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Republican party has exactly 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Republican party has exactly 46 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Republican party has exactly 47 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Republican party has exactly 48 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Republican party has exactly 49 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.