KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probability48 12%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$20.8K
Liquidity
$1.2M
High liquidityBid / Ask
9.5% / 11.0%
Spread
15.8%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Dec 20, 25, 4:00 PMFeb 1, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
4812%
Also available on Manifold Markets
How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?
6mo
2.5%
3%
+0.1%3.7%
+9 more outcomes
Community forecast40 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$25K
24h Vol$98.4
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If the Democratic Party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).
- If the Democratic Party has exactly 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Democratic Party has exactly 46 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Democratic Party has exactly 47 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Democratic Party has exactly 48 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$20.8kJul 26d of dataJul 7
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If the Democratic Party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).
- If the Democratic Party has exactly 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Democratic Party has exactly 46 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Democratic Party has exactly 47 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Democratic Party has exactly 48 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.