How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?
One-OffPoliticsElectionUS Politics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast51 16.8%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
46
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleApr 2, 25, 12:16 AM UTCJan 4, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?
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Manifold MarketsRules
I will add new options if the odds credibly swing either much higher or much lower than the currently expected median.
- Feel free to ask clarifying questions.
- By default, this market will resolve on January 4th, 2027.
- If there is an edge case in which it is unclear how many Dems are in the new senate, I will delay resolution.
- Independents will count towards the party they caucus with.
- Independents who do not caucus with the Dems will not count for them, even if they usually vote with them.
Prediction Source Comparison
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+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213M
- 24h Vol
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- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
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- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election??
- Manifold Markets prices 51 at 17% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election? resolve?
- How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election? is scheduled to resolve on January 4, 2027.
- How is How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I will add new options if the odds credibly swing either much higher or much lower than the currently expected median.
- Where else is How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.