How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?
1.0 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsElectionUS Politics2026 US Midterms2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast52 21%-1.0ptLeader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
63
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+5.4 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Apr 2, 25, 12:16 AM UTCJan 4, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?
Manifold MarketsWill the Democrats hold 53 or more Senate seats in the next Congress?
Manifold MarketsWill the Democrats hold 56 or more senate seats in the next Congress?
Manifold MarketsWill the Democrats hold 54 or more Senate Seats in the next Congress?
Manifold MarketsHow many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
KalshiHow many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)
KalshiRules
I will add new options if the odds credibly swing either much higher or much lower than the currently expected median.
- Feel free to ask clarifying questions.
- By default, this market will resolve on January 4th, 2027.
- If there is an edge case in which it is unclear how many Dems are in the new senate, I will delay resolution.
- Independents will count towards the party they caucus with.
- Independents who do not caucus with the Dems will not count for them, even if they usually vote with them.
