How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?
One-OffPoliticsElectionUS Politics6moManifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecast44 2.5%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
40
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 days ago
StaleApr 2, 25, 12:16 AMJan 4, 27, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
443%
Compare venues· 51
Ordered by 24h volume| Venue | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiMost active | 15% | — | $4.5K | $1.2M | 8 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | 18% | — | — | — | 7 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
0.1%6mo
+0.1%4%
17%
-0.1%7%
+7 more outcomes
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.6M
24h Vol$4.5K
KALSHIRules
I will add new options if the odds credibly swing either much higher or much lower than the currently expected median.
- Feel free to ask clarifying questions.
- By default, this market will resolve on January 4th, 2027.
- If there is an edge case in which it is unclear how many Dems are in the new senate, I will delay resolution.
- Independents will count towards the party they caucus with.
- Independents who do not caucus with the Dems will not count for them, even if they usually vote with them.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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I will add new options if the odds credibly swing either much higher or much lower than the currently expected median.
- Feel free to ask clarifying questions.
- By default, this market will resolve on January 4th, 2027.
- If there is an edge case in which it is unclear how many Dems are in the new senate, I will delay resolution.
- Independents will count towards the party they caucus with.
- Independents who do not caucus with the Dems will not count for them, even if they usually vote with them.