Will the Democrats hold 53 or more Senate seats in the next Congress?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 63%
Forecasters
85
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Oct 21, 26, 9:45 PM UTCFeb 2, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the Democratic Party holds 53 or more seats in the specified chamber of the United States Congress on February 1, 2027.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Source of truth: The official composition (identity and partisan membership) published by the United States Congress (accessible via Congress.gov or official chamber directories at Senate.gov) as of February 1, 2027.
- Caucusing members: In accordance with standard Congressional counting conventions, independent members who officially caucus with the Democratic Party (e.g., independent senators who organize with the Democratic caucus) are counted toward the Democratic seat total.
- Timing & revisions: Partisan composition will be measured as of February 1, 2027.
